If you want to try to talk yourself into a Jets cover as seven-point underdogs against the Eagles late Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium — or even an outright upset victory — there are ways to do it.
The first way is the last thing I mentioned there. The Eagles have yet to lose a game. That status is an endangered species, as they and the 49ers are the only teams at 5-0. Everyone else has tasted defeat.
You can tell yourself the Jets are only scratching the surface on offense as Nathaniel Hackett tries to get Zach Wilson to the point where he can consistently utilize the team’s major weapons, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
This process has a chance to get better each week, unless there’s a Zach Wilson disaster game lurking.
You can look at the matchups and argue the Jets’ defensive line can stand up to Philly’s vaunted O-line, get some hits on Jalen Hurts and change the usual Eagles dynamics. As Exhibits A and B, you could present the stats of Josh Allen, who lost at MetLife, and Patrick Mahomes, who nearly did.
Or you could point to both the Jets being 3-2 against the spread, similar to the Eagles’ 3-1-1, with two of the Jets covers coming at home against elite quarterbacks. And the fact that the Eagles’ point differential of plus-37 computes to an average win by 7.4 ppg, which is right at this number.
There’s a pathway to all of the above, but I’m not ready to take it. The Eagles have too many threats on offense for the Jets to contain, and Philly’s defense ranks No. 1 against the run, so that should limit not only Hall’s yards but also the play-action passes that come off them. Figuring Zach Wilson will be back to being under siege behind a line now missing Alijah Vera-Tucker.
The pick: Eagles -7.
BUFFALO BILLS (-14.5) over New York Giants
Was able to get my first Lock of the Week win of the season with the Dolphins -14.5 over the Giants. Even that got dicey, as the Giants had multiple chances for a backdoor cover.
But the game circumstances show just how far away the Giants are from being able to compete. They had the ball for 36 minutes and still gave up 31 points and 524 yards in the other 24 minutes. Their defense scored on a pick-six and created two other turnovers, and the team still couldn’t stay within two touchdowns.
The Bills played last week in London, so there’s always the possibility they will be a little flat at the start. I figure that coming off a loss to the Jaguars, though, that they’ll be plenty ready.
And though Buffalo is missing some stars on defense, it will still throw the likes of Von Miller, Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa and Leonard Floyd at the Giants’ tattered offensive line and likely backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
The big number always scares me, and Brian Daboll does have some knowledge he can use about Josh Allen, but I’m seeing something like 31-10 as the starting point for the Giants’ continuing misery.
Tennessee Titans (+4) over Baltimore Ravens (in London)
Another glorious Sunday when the football goes from 9:30 a.m. to midnight! Ravens played two road games before making this long trip, and I’m thinking that will take some starch out of them. Wouldn’t be surprised to see one of their patented last-second Justin Tucker field-goal wins, but have no interest in laying this many.
Washington Commanders (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS
Desmond Ridder is 31-0 as a starting quarterback in home games for the Falcons (5-0) and University of Cincinnati (26-0). Is this fun bar trivia or actionable betting information? Interestingly, two of the Falcons’ home wins (25-24 over the Packers and 21-19 over the Texans) would not have covered this small spread. Looking for the Commanders, with some extra rest off a blowout loss to the Bears, to be the Ridder homewreckers.
CHICAGO BEARS (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings
This was supposed to be a game in which the visiting Vikings had a huge edge at wide receiver, but now Justin Jefferson is out, and the Bears’ D.J. Moore is coming in off of 131- and 230-yard games.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Joe Burrow’s strained calf is reportedly back to close to 100 percent, and you could tell last week in Arizona when he moved more freely and threw for 317 yards in a 34-20 victory. Tee Higgins also could return to an offense that looks reenergized. Seattle’s a good team but might be in the wrong place at the wrong time here.
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Niners’ first trip east resulted in a 30-7 destruction of the Steelers. They present as a healthy juggernaut, one that just ate up and spit out the Cowboys. The Browns have injury questions throughout the offense, not just with Deshaun Watson.
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Main reason is I think it’s hard to ask the Dolphins to cover a spread of around two touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. Also, De’Von Achane’s absence takes away some of Miami’s speed. And it’s a bit of a look-ahead spot to next week’s Sunday nighter in Philadelphia.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4) over Indianapolis Colts
An early rematch as the Jaguars took a back-and-forth, 31-21 win in the opener in Indy. Anthony Richardson is out for the Colts, and it appears the Trevor Lawrence-Travis Etienne-Calvin Ridley train is starting to get up to speed.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
I know the Patriots are terrible now, but there has to be some positive carryover for a team that just beat Bill Belichick 34-0 in Foxborough. Have to respect the Texans, too, off blowouts of the Jaguars and Steelers and a last-second loss in Atlanta. They just might be due for a dud.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-2.5) over New England Patriots
The injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez should continue to be fatal for the Patriots’ defense. It’s all bad in New England, from Mac Jones getting pulled the past two weeks to Robert Kraft breathing down Belichick’s neck. Have fun, Jimmy Garoppolo!
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7) over Arizona Cardinals
A little more than I wanted to lay to an Arizona team that can score enough to get through the backdoor. But I’m looking forward to seeing more of what Matthew Stafford can do with a healthy trio of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell.
Detroit Lions (-3) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
While the Bucs are a surprising 3-1 in their post-Tom Brady season, this one looks to be similar to the 25-11 home loss to the Eagles. The Lions are locked in with three wins of 14-plus points in a row. Dan Campbell is good at keeping the momentum going.
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Monday
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+2.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Chargers are off the bye and could have Austin Ekeler back. Dallas has two road losses already this season and were exposed in a lot of areas by the 49ers. Dallas figures to have a sizable road-crowd advantage in SoFi, though.
Best bets: Raiders, Bengals, Lions
Lock of the week: Raiders (Locks 1-4 in 2023)
Last week: 7-7 overall, 3-0 Best Bets
Thursday: Broncos (L)
